The Sun is no longer “approaching” the maximum of Solar Cycle 25. NASA and NOAA announced the maximum phase in October 2024, and the smoothed peak is now placed in the 2024–2026 window. By late 2026 the cycle is moving into decline.

That correction does not make the danger vanish. Large solar flares and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections can occur during the declining phase, and an individual extreme storm cannot be predicted years in advance. The quieter trend is not a shield.

What a Carrington-level event means

In 1859, a powerful solar eruption produced intense auroras and induced currents in telegraph systems. Operators reported sparks, equipment failures and lines that continued working after batteries were disconnected. The “Carrington Event” has become shorthand for an extreme geomagnetic storm, although reconstructing its exact strength remains difficult.

A modern event would first affect space. Satellites could suffer charging, radiation damage and orbital drag as Earth’s upper atmosphere expands. GPS accuracy and high-frequency radio could degrade. Astronauts outside strong shielding would face elevated radiation risk.

On the ground, long conductors collect geomagnetically induced currents. High-voltage transmission networks are a principal concern because transformers can overheat or become unstable. Pipelines and railway signalling may also be affected. Impacts would vary by latitude, geology, grid design and operator response.

Would the global internet go dark?

The simple viral claim—one solar storm destroys the entire internet—is too strong. Fibre-optic strands do not conduct geomagnetic currents. The vulnerable components are the electrical systems that power repeaters, landing stations, data centres and terrestrial networks. Satellites and radio links add other dependencies.

A severe storm could cause regional blackouts, navigation problems and communications disruption. Cascading failures are possible, especially if equipment damage outlasts the storm. But the outcome would not be uniform, and operators now receive space-weather warnings that did not exist in 1859.

Can we predict a superstorm?

Scientists can identify active regions and detect a coronal mass ejection soon after launch, but forecasting whether its magnetic field will couple strongly with Earth’s magnetosphere remains difficult until spacecraft sample the solar wind upstream of Earth. That may provide tens of minutes of high-confidence warning for the most damaging orientation.

Solar maximum raises the frequency of active regions and storms; it does not provide a calendar for the largest event. Historical evidence suggests extreme storms are rare but inevitable over long periods. The rational response is resilience, not a precise date.

A planet under aurora

If a very strong storm struck, auroras could reach unusually low latitudes, turning skies red and green far from the polar regions. The display would be beautiful evidence of an enormous transfer of energy into the near-Earth environment.

The most useful question is not whether 2026 or 2027 will deliver “the next Carrington Event.” No credible method can answer that. The question is whether grids, satellites, emergency services and households are prepared whenever it comes. Solar Cycle 25 is a reminder that technological civilisation lives inside the atmosphere of an active star.

Sources and further reading

• NASA/NOAA: Solar Cycle 25 maximum phase
• NOAA: Solar Cycle progression
• NOAA: Geomagnetic storms